Oddsmakers expect the Denver Broncos to be the 6.5-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks, with many expecting them to win by an even bigger margin. A big reason for that is the difference in quarterbacks on each team.
The Seahawks went from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith, and the Broncos went from Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Rock to a 9-time Pro Bowler. This made the Broncos almost everyone in his country expect a big win.
Is Broncos Country grossly underestimating the Seahawks? Let’s try to answer that question by examining these two teams outside of the quarterback position.
If you look at the Seahawks last year, here are the places that stood in the way of offense and defense.
violation:
- Passing Yards Per Game: 201.9 (23rd)
- Rushing yards per game: 122.0 (11th)
- Points per game: 23.2 (16th place)
- Third Down Rate: 37.3 (23rd)
defense:
- Passing Yards Per Game: 265.5 (31st)
- Rushing yards per game: 113.6 (17th)
- Points per game: 21.5 (12th place)
- Third down rate: 39.3 (14th)
- Pressure percentage: 22.1% (26 days)
- Sacks: 34 (tied for 24th)
The Seahawks ended up having an excellent rushing game averaging 5 yards per attempt, the third highest in the NFL. Rashaad Penny played some big games to increase the Seahawks’ rushing numbers.
Penney has been in charge of running back for the last five weeks, gaining at least 135 yards in four of those games. However, these games were against run defensemen who ranked him 31st, 23rd, 28th, and he 20th respectively in yards allowed per game.
Despite last season’s problems, the Broncos averaged 111.3 yards per game, 15th in the NFL. Denver bolstered their run defense by adding DJ Jones and bringing Josie Jewell back to health. Having Bradley Chubb also helps prevent the run.
Seattle’s running game is solid, but can Penny repeat the numbers? Will Seattle’s reorganized offensive line hold up? Can Smith do enough to help the running game?
The Seahawks have three new pieces in their offensive line, including an offensive tackle. In fact, both tackles were rookies and showed promise in the preseason, but most of the time he played against second and his third stringers. Will these rookies be able to match his NFL starter?
On the inside, Austin Bryce is Seattle’s new center and has been solid in his time as a starter. Nonetheless, Denver should do well in the trenches against a run with Jones in the middle of the defensive line.
Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams and DJ Jones should put enough internal pressure on Smith, who was under pressure more than 38% of the time as a result of two guards. In terms of tackles, Smith said he was under pressure 46.1% of the time. Adding rookies Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas should help reduce that number.
However, they are newcomers, and they can use Chubb’s strengths to attack areas of concern around crosses. As for Lucas, a lot depends on whether Randy Gregory plays. Gregory would be a bad matchup for Lucas, but Baron Browning would be a better matchup for the rookie.
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Defensively, the Seahawks had a generally good season, especially in the front seven. However, the secondary was problematic, so they drafted Tarik Uhren and Kobe Bryant. His two corners on Rookie are a lot like his two tackles on Rookie. They had a promising preseason and training camp, but they didn’t often turn against NFL starters.
Courtland Sutton could be a serious problem for them. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler could also be a problem, depending on the health of the latter.
As for the front 7, Seattle had a good unit last year but suffered heavy losses. Carlos Dunlap, Rassim Green, Kelly Hider and Bobby Wagner headline Seattle’s Front 7 Exodus. That’s a total of 102 pressures and 191 tackles lost.
As an alternative, the Seahawks traded Wilson for Shelby Harris and brought in Uchenna Nuwos. This brings the defense to 73 total pressures and 55 total tackles. This is a huge production loss from Seattle’s defensive front. The Seahawks also added Boi Maffee and Tyreke Smith to their rookies, but they haven’t played in the regular season yet. The two rookies can cut into production losses, but it’s safe to expect a drop in performance.
Conclusion
So is Broncos Country broadly underestimating the Seahawks?
No.
Seattle is widely regarded as one of the worst rosters in the NFL, as they suffered some significant losses and were in key positions. The Seahawks are looking to multiple rookies for key roles. This is good for gaining experience in the future, but not much right now.
The Seahawks seem poised to acquire a 2023 class quarterback and could be a good team in a year or two. This year, however, Seattle seems to be aiming for a higher draft pick, and Denver could help them in the season opener.
It’s the first game of the season, so football on the Broncos side will have issues, but having a bona fide quarterback makes all the difference. But even beyond that, the Broncos still have a good roster.
This game won’t be easy, but Denver has a better chance of winning by a touchdown or more.
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