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when Cody Bellinger I was at bat in the 7th inning of Sunday’s game against The Padres, he has already done more than his part for the cause.of dodgersThe center fielder hit safely in each of the first two games of the series (both wins) and hit a home run in the third inning of the finale to give Los Angeles an early lead. Then he made history.
Bellinger took Luis Garcia He became the first player in Dodgers history to hit a home run. Two multi-home run games against the Padres in the same seasonIf that sounds like an achievement too niche to deserve mention, it’s understandable. Worth it. But as the Dodgers gear up for yet another postseason run, there are signs that, if the former MVP isn’t turning a corner, at least he’s getting closer to one.
Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports
Bellinger’s journey from 23-year-old MVP to sub-replacement-level regular is now well-documented. His 2019 campaign stands out as one of the best young hitters in league history. The National League MVP award-winning Bellinger has 15 stolen bases and he has 167 OPS+, meaning he hit 47 home runs and was 67% better than the average MLB hitter. Among young players who hit at least 30 home runs and he stole 15 bases in the same season, his OPS+ is the fifth highest in modern times, Ken Griffey Jr. (171 in 1993), Following Jose Canseco (170 in 1988). ) When Mike Trout (169 in 2014, 168 in 2012).
Then the bottom fell out. Bellinger regressed during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, suffering a dislocated shoulder during the playoffs that required surgery in the offseason, which will certainly play a role in his 2021 performance. fulfilled. It was one of the worst offensive shows ever for an everyday player, with Bellinger’s OPS+ of 44 and a .165 batting average among players with 350-plus plate appearances in a season It’s the fifth lowest since the early days and better than Billbergen (.139 in 1909).and .159 in ’06), Adam Dunn (.159 he in 2011) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.163, last year too).He hasn’t been that bad at bat this season, but he certainly hasn’t goodOPS+ is 84 after Sunday’s performance.
Given the widespread acceptance of defensive shifts over the past decade, he points out that hitters, especially left-handed hitters, change their defensive adjustments when they see their production fall off a cliff. is easy. But Bellinger was already routinely opposed by the time he won his MVP. No Facing change hasn’t been good the last few seasons either.
| Year | PA % vs. Shift | wOBA vs. Shift | wOBA (no shift) | Pull % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2019 |
80.2% |
.410 |
.433 |
47.9% |
|
2020 |
91.7% |
.330 |
.414 |
45.6% |
|
2021 |
91.3% |
.233 |
.274 |
45.1% |
|
2022 |
90.9% |
.292 |
.285 |
46.3% |
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via stats master of baseball, fan graph
Still, if you squint, there’s reason to believe that Bellinger’s form is on the rise. In 2020 and 21, Bellinger made many mistakes. 661 slugging percentage against the Heaters in 19, he failed to exceed . 360 in any of his two subsequent seasons. 257 on the fastball, and his slugging percentage is . 514. He’s not up to the level he was at in 2019, but he’s no longer blown by hard stuff.
Specifically, Bellinger has returned to doing more damage to pitchers low in the zone. More specifically, he has success again with the sinker. Bellinger is batting .327 and slugging .727 this year after a dismal .103 with the Thinkers last year. Both Bellinger’s homers on Sunday were against sinkers, and Garcia’s sinkers weren’t effective this year, but with Darvish: The hitters this season averaged just .197 against Darvish’s sinkers. I have. Hit a base in over 100 at-bats.
So of the ways the pitcher has beaten Bellinger over the last three seasons, the fastball and sinker are now less effective. Still, Bellinger’s swing is not without holes. He’s still susceptible to curveballs and off-speed pitches, especially sliders, and has nearly 400 at-bats this year, and his 27.7% strikeout rate is one of his career-worst in a season. will be
217/.267/.434 since the beginning of July, and his season batting average hasn’t topped .220 since the end of May. He has signs of real improvement happening. According to Baseball Savant, Bellinger’s hard-hitting percentage is 39% in his last 100 at-bats, well short of his career mark of 41.6%. , although it’s not exactly mid-range, but it’s the highest since mid-May.
But perhaps most important is his reduced strikeout rate. This stretch saw him down to 21%, finally putting him just below league average for the first time in over a year. Bellinger was once his hitter with high contact, and his strikeout rate during his MVP campaign was just 16.4%. He may never return to that profile, but at least his whims are headed in the right direction.
It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers handle Bellinger’s rulings this offseason. His speed and defense have proven to be valuable contributors again this season. A below-average hitter with good position, good defense, and a strong base his running is definitely worth it. But he’s made $17 million this season, and may ask for more in his 23rd year, his final year before becoming a free agent. Another factor to consider: The Dodgers have no shortage of expensive players slated to enter free agency this winter (among them Trea Turner and Clayton Kershaw chiefs).
Bellinger hasn’t been an MVP-level player for a while. But he doesn’t have to be that way to be an x-factor in another Los Angeles postseason run, as he proved over the weekend against his supposed October opponent. , on any given night he could make all the difference.
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