Economy and History May Prevent Democrats from Retaining Control of the House

(CN) — Despite the recent legislative victory over President Joe Biden’s agenda, Democrats still have great odds and historic precedents to overcome to prevent the coming change of the guard in Congress in November. must be

Soaring gas prices, declining affordable housing and fears of a possible economic recession are the key items Democrats must sweep voters’ minds to stay in power in November.Recent ABC Only 37% of voters support Biden’s handling of the economic recovery, according to an /Ipsos poll.

David Schultz, a professor of political science at Hamline University, says the incumbent president’s party has consistently performed poorly in the midterm elections.

“In general, we know that midterm elections are not good for the incumbent president’s party.” less likely to keep.”

Biden’s approval rating climbed to 40% this week, the highest in two months.

Since World War II, only one president has seen his party grow in midterm elections. In 2002, President George W. Bush and the Republican Party won his eight seats, solidifying the Republican majority in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Recent Democrat accidental achievements such as the passage of inflation-cutting laws, strong employment indicators, and the neutralization of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri may be big wins for the party, but like 9/11, the paradigm never shift.

“Biden’s approval numbers are better than they were a few weeks ago and he’s had a string of wins, many of which are in Washington, D.C.’s mind,” Schultz said. Every time I go, the public is still unhappy with the economy and most Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.Additionally, Biden’s public relations and image are not good and most voters It’s not enough to change economic perceptions or perceptions of him.”

Michael J. Malvin, a professor of political science at the University of Albany, says recent victories do not make up for nearly two years of uncertainty.

“Voters do not make decisions based on specific laws or foreign policy actions,” he said. “Rather, these government actions contribute to long-term attitudes, which contribute to overall ratings and, crucially, to voting intent.”

One wildcard might be voter turnout in swing states with voting initiatives that include abortion rights. Law vs. Wade.

“Abortion is already on ballots in California, Montana and Vermont and could be on the ballot in Colorado and Michigan,” Malvin said. “This could help stimulate Democratic voter turnout, especially in Colorado and Michigan.”

Colorado is leaning slightly toward Biden for one open house seat in the 8th congressional district in 2020, according to a recent poll, which is now closely contested. In Michigan, the presidential election effectively split his three seats in the House of Representatives. In the two districts, the voter gap was less than 1% for him.

In Kansas, a majority of voters recently refused to amend the state constitution to remove protections for abortion rights.

“Kansas gets people excited, but abortion was a peculiar issue of the vote,” Schultz said. “Yes, it has boosted turnout, but it will also motivate Republicans to vote in November. Whether or not it will be an election that features the economy is still a question mark. [and] Abortion will motivate enough voters to make a difference. Driving college-educated suburban women to vote alongside younger voters could make a difference in some key elections. “

David Wells, a professor of political science and leadership at Arizona State University, says it will be difficult for Democrats to overcome the odds because voters often follow the prevailing winds.

“Often it’s more about the party than the people. Many voters don’t really know who their legislators are. I am doing,” he said.

Without a rapid economic recovery, the Democrats’ path in the House is uncertain. Wells said the outlook is generally positive in the Senate, where voters are generally aware of incumbents and likely to make conscious decisions about the controversial Trump-supporting candidate. I am optimistic.

“I think the Democrats have a much better position in the Senate and will actually win a seat in the Senate,” he said. “It seems to me that the Democrats are in a much better position in that regard, largely because of the influence of Donald Trump, who won the primary.”