To understand the globalized nature of our food system, look to your morning cup of coffee. Its shocking caffeine finds its way into traders, roasters, financiers, shippers, grocers, cafes, and ultimately your cup.
Coffee is the world’s second-most-traded commodity after crude oil and constitutes a US$466 billion industry that has landed on our tables thanks to fossil fuels that power ships and create packaging. doing. Coffee is the globalization of mugs.
But it’s not just coffee. Our food system crisscrosses oceans and continents, bringing olive oil from the Mediterranean Sea and almonds from California, wheat from Ukraine and rice from India, cocoa from West Africa and soybeans from Brazil to markets around the world.
Our food ecosystem is perpetually global, producing a richness never before seen in human history.
But the same prosperity fueled by globalization has a flip side. Sudden disruptions can wreak havoc, leading to food insecurity and mass starvation. The Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, the drought and historic heat waves that have stretched from the west coast of the United States to Europe to China.
This third problem caused by rising temperatures is likely to be the most devastating in the long run. Think of the chaos in Europe. Spain, Portugal, France and Italy all recently experienced historic heatwaves and the worst drought on record dating back to the 5th century. This one-two punch of heat and drought is lowering river levels, killing crops, taxing power grids and slowing manufacturing.
Low river levels mean less hydropower. Declining hydropower capacity comes at a very difficult time for Europe’s energy infrastructure given the sharp rise in natural gas prices. Germany lives on more coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. However, low river levels complicate the use of coal, paralyzing ships carrying coal on the Rhine.
European governments have deeper buffers and stronger supply chain protections than most countries in the world. As painful as the current turmoil is, Europe will not see mass food insecurity or hunger.
The Horn of Africa is not. Some 18 million people in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia are inadequately fed and tens of millions face varying levels of food insecurity due to the worst drought in 40 years.
We are witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in part due to exogenous shocks to the world’s food system over the past two and a half years. The Horn of Africa is a vivid example of the connection between climate and food.
As for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the United Nations World Food Program has issued a grim warning. Seventy-three million people in 14 countries lack access to adequate food supplies, igniting a major crisis across the region.
While some of the worst-hit countries are plagued by non-climate factors such as war, mismanagement and corruption, the climate-food link will play a key role in the region’s future. .
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund, climate disasters displace seven million people annually across the Middle East and Central Asia. On average, climate disasters cause 2,600 deaths and $2 billion in damages annually.
These IMF figures only tell a tale of tragic events. They fail to capture the long-term health effects of daily air pollution and bouts of inadequate food consumption in children.
To compound the problem, the MENA region is the most water-scarce in the world, according to the Population Reference Bureau. As noted by the PRB, the region has only 1.4% of the world’s renewable freshwater, despite being home to about 6.3% of the world’s population. Demographic pressures on water supplies are set to persist over the next 20 years.
Drought also hit China. Several provinces in China are experiencing the worst drought in more than 60 years. This has slowed manufacturing, disrupted supply chains and depressed demand in China. Over the past two decades, China has been a major demand engine for oil and gas. Any signs of slowing demand could push oil prices lower.
Extreme weather instability should be considered the norm rather than an outlier. Our food system should not be surprised by such instability. The climate-food nexus needs better safeguards. The climate-food link is at the top of the agenda as two world climate conferences are due in his MENA region next, in Egypt in 2022 and in the United Arab Emirates in 2023. must.
It’s not just the rise in morning latte prices. For many people around the world, the relationship between climate and food is a matter of life and death.
This article is syndication bureau, All rights reserved.