NFL odds: 10 betting nuggets from Vegas sources

Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Writer

NFL Betting drives the bus on America’s sports betting roads.In my debut as a FOX Sports contributor, believe me, I won’t miss that bus. But first, a little background.

I’m not a sharp bettor, so I don’t pretend to be an expert.But as actor Liam Neeson says in the movie photographwhat I have is a very specific set of skills, or more precisely, a very specific set of sources. , is a sharp bettor on the side of the counter.

Leaning into these sources and my work over the past 15 years as an insider in the sports betting industry, here are 10 interesting NFL betting nuggets for the 2022-23 season.

Saint Seiya’s Double Trouble

Sure, Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a popular NFC team. Same goes for Aaron Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers.

But an unexpected team is making a fuss in multiple 2022 NFL betting markets.

WinBet trader Andy Morrissey said, “The Saints have the biggest responsibility for winning the NFC. The biggest responsibility for Coach of the Year is the Saints’ Dennis Allen.” “We will keep an eye on the Saints all year long.”

New Orleans opened +2500 at Winbet’s NFC win odds. The Saints have since cut that number in half, sitting as the +1200 joint sixth choice.

Meanwhile, Allen took over as Saints coach following Sean Payton’s 16 years of success. Allen is his eighth pick in NFL Coach of the Year odds at +1800, tightening from +2500 in the opener.

Bust the Broncos?

The Denver Broncos have significantly strengthened their quarterback with the offseason acquisition of Russell Wilson in a trade to the Seattle Seahawks. There’s a lot of NFL betting buzz about the move, and a lot of optimism in the Mile High City.

But one enthusiastic investor said he recommended other investors withdraw their control of the Broncos market.

“Denver has a solid roster and an offensive line that allows the running game to flourish,” he said. “The problem is they’re second only to the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West. It’s the third best team, and Russell Wilson has been average at best over the past few years.He doesn’t use his feet and can only throw deep balls.

“Wilson is not what he used to be.”

horse worth riding

Conversely, the same professional bettors have performed significantly better with the Indianapolis Colts. He’s not Super Bowl tall, but he’s way beyond the Colts’ chances of winning his AFC South.

“I took them at +140, +130, +120,” he said, noting that the Colts are now in the -140 range for most of the book, favoring winning the division. “Indianapolis has a strong offensive line and is probably the best in the game. The Colts have a good running game and Matt Ryan will thrive in play action. is near the top, Indianapolis should dominate the horribly bad division.”

keep it up

By the way, for my money (usually #ChilisMoney), I think coaches should ask for it more often on 4th down. Never mind if it’s the first quarter or the last two minutes for him. Winbet’s Morrissey believes more coaches are starting to take that mindset, and oddsmakers may need to adjust for that.

“I’m going to watch the early season over,” Morrissey said, noting that aggressive play-calling could lead to scoring. “It’s a copycat league, and there’s been a lot of discussion about 4-down decision-making over the last few years. Not just snap motion, but throwing the ball off the field into playmakers and being aggressive on 4 downs.”

get over

Morrissey also foresees another area that could prove beneficial to overbetters, at least until defenders adapt. Recently, the NFL directed officials to highlight illegal contact penalties early in the 2022 regular season.

“With the new emphasis on illegal contact, we are interested to see if the early season games are much higher than the total,” he said. will have to.”

Jimmy Garoppolo; Seahawks In or Out? | | Flock

Jimmy Garoppolo; Seahawks In or Out? | | Flock

All eyes are on the Seattle Seahawks as they decide whether to add Jimmy Garoppolo before the offseason officially ends. Colin Cowherd breaks down what their roster looks like now and why he thinks a move from Jimmy G. to Seattle might not make sense. Meanwhile, Jason McIntyre makes an interesting bet based on Colin’s opinion.

Patriot’s Suffering

Josh McDaniels, longtime offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots, is currently coaching the Las Vegas Raiders. And as we all know by now, Brady hasn’t walked through that door in Foxboro.

Last season, rookie QB Mack Jones helped New England to a 10-7 record and a spot in the AFC Wild Card playoffs. But McDaniels won’t be on Jones’ ears this year. The aforementioned astute bettor doesn’t think McDaniels’ absence doesn’t bode well for Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

“New England is in big trouble this year. Losing Josh McDaniels is huge for a young QB,” he said. They have weak arms, athletic problems, have an unarmed offense, and their defense isn’t as good as it used to be.Choose them all year round.”

fly, eagles, fly

If the 2022 NFL betting action at Caesars Sports is any indication, customers are confident the Philadelphia Eagles will have a good year. He went 9-8 last season with the Eagles mediocre, but that was enough to earn him an NFC wildcard bid.

Expectations are high for QB Jalen Hurts & Co this year. For example, the Eagles opened +4000 on the Super Bowl odds board and are now down to +2500. This one of his Nevada bettors joined late, still betting $5,000 at +2500, and could (very unlikely) win $125,000 .

But the Eagles’ interest goes far beyond that.

The Dallas Cowboys opened as the -150 favorite while the Eagles won the NFC East at +330. Cowboys +130, Eagles +150, almost dead heat. In fact, at Caesars Books, Philly has earned more NFC East cash than the Cowboys, Giants and Commanders combined.

In the yes/no market for playoff berths, betting yes on Philadelphia is a very popular play. No was originally a -130 favorite. Yes is -160. In fact, the Eagles have his second-most winnings to make the playoffs, trailing only the Saints.

Finally, Philly’s total wins for the season moved from 9 (under -130) to 9.5 (over -140). His 9 out of 10 in tickets and dollars are over at Caesars Books, and he’s expecting double-digit wins for the season.

Rabid for the Raiders

An interesting dynamic regarding the ever-expanding legalization of sports betting in the United States is the increasing creeping regional bias, especially in the NFL. For decades, regional bias wasn’t really an issue in Las Vegas, until Sin City had an NFL team.

Indeed, when the Raiders were in Oakland or Los Angeles, interest from California visitors was always high. But now that they’re Las Vegas his Raiders and entering his third season at Glitter Gulch, that interest is even higher.

Scott Shelton of BetMGM Nevada said, noting the violent action from locals and Las Vegas visitors, “For us, it’s all about the Raiders. We’re just buried alive by the Raiders.” “The tickets and the money to win the Super Bowl or win the AFC are all on them. It’s a constant influx of money.”

But that’s just BetMGM Nevada. BetMGM HQ in New Jersey handles the company’s odds movement nationwide, which is an interesting story. The Raiders opened +5000 to win the Super Bowl, cutting it down to +3500, but then dropped back to +4000, miles behind the favorites.

The Raiders have a big stake in the Vegas market, but several teams have shown bad results for BetMGM nationally. The Bills, Broncos and Chargers are especially famous.

fade or follow

Total wins in an NFL season has always been a popular bet, and Shelton pointed out some notable trends.

Of the action in BetMGM’s Vegas book, Shelton said, “The Surprise Fade are very public teams, the Buccaneers and the Cowboys, from both sharp and public bets.

The Buccaneers’ winning percentage isn’t far from 11.5, but the odds have shifted from a -110 pick to less than -150. The Cowboys’ win total remains open and at 8.5, but the price has moved from the -110 pick to under -155.

Conversely, bettors love the Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins. Minnesota he opened at 8.5 (-110) and BetMGM crossed -170 before he moved to 9.5 (-110). Miami hasn’t moved away from his 8.5, but the price has risen from a -110 pick to over -145.

I can not stand it

With a new coach in Matt Everfuls and a year under his belt with QB Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears are likely looking to improve. Bettors seem to have other ideas, including NFC North win percentages. BetMGM Nevada is rooting for Chicago to wow people.

“Normally the Bears are a very public team, but this year it’s a good result to win NFC North,” Shelton said.

Chicago opened +800 in the division odds market and is now trailing behind at +1100 and is largely out of the spotlight. The Packers are the -155 favorites, followed by the Vikings (+250) and the Lions (+850).

Patrick Everson is a Sports Betting Analyst for FOX Sports and Senior Reporter for He previously worked for Covers and is a prominent journalist in the domestic sports betting industry. Based in Las Vegas, he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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